【TED影片-03】筆記與反思
Tom Griffiths《湯姆‧葛瑞菲斯》
3 ways to make better decisions — by thinking like a computer
做更好決策的3個方法-像電腦一樣思考
<演講重點筆記>
【方法1】 37%法則(37 percent)
an optimal stopping problem-37 percent
最佳停止問題 - 37%法則
If you want to maximize the probability that you find the very best place, you should look at 37 percent of what's on the market, and then make an offer on the next place you see, which is better than anything that you've seen so far. Or if you're looking for a month, take 37 percent of that time -- 11 days, to set a standard -- and then you're ready to act.
如果你想要把找到最佳選擇的機率提升到最高，你得要看過市場上37%的所有選擇的， 接著到下一個地方時，就提出交易條件，它會比你目前看過的所有選擇都更好。 或者，如果你要花一個月來尋找，就取那段時間的 37% —— 即 11 天，來設定標準—— 接著你就可以準備行動了。
(註：例如買房子決定何時下訂，設定一個月尋找，那麼第11天就可行行動。)
【方法2】 探索／利用的權衡(explore-exploit trade-off)
You have to make a decision about whether you're going to try something new -- exploring, gathering some information that you might be able to use in the future -- or whether you're going to go to a place that you already know is pretty good -- exploiting the information that you've already gathered so far.
你得要做一個決策，決定你是否要嘗試新選項--去「探索」，收集一些未來可能會用到的資訊--或者你是否要選擇去你已經知道不錯的地方--「利用」你目前已經收集到的資訊。
(註：例如選擇餐廳時，時間不夠，就利用-選一間知道不錯的，如果時間足夠就探索-花時間探索新選項。)
Try something new, because the information you get is something that can improve your choices in the future. The value of information increases the more opportunities you're going to have to use it.
試試新選項，因為你從中得到的資訊可能協助你在未來做更好的選擇。你越有可能用到一項資訊， 該資訊的價值就會增加。
【方法3】 快取(focuses on the items which have been least recently used)
If it's been a long time since you last accessed that piece of information, it's probably going to be a long time before you're going to need to access it again.
如果你上次存取那項資訊 已經是很久以前的事了， 你下次需要存取它的時間應該也會是很久以後。
You have limited capacity, and you need to try and get in there the things that you're most likely to need so that you can get to them as quickly as possible. Recognizing that, maybe it's worth applying the least recently used principle to organizing your wardrobe as well.
你的容量有限，你得要把你最有可能用到的東西放進去，這樣你才能夠盡快取得它們。 認知到這一點後，也許也值得嘗試應用 「近期最少使用」(快取)原則 來整理你的衣櫥。
【總結】
You can't control outcomes, just processes. And as long as you've used the best process, you've done the best that you can. Sometimes those best processes involve taking a chance -- not considering all of your options, or being willing to settle for a pretty good solution. These aren't the concessions that we make when we can't be rational -- they're what being rational means.
你不能控制結果，只能控制過程。 只要你已經用了最好的過程，你就已經盡了全力。 有時，最好的過程會需要冒點險——比如不去考量所有的選項，或是願意妥協，接受算是不錯的解決方案。這些並不是我們在無法理性時所做的讓步—— 它們就是理性的真締。
<例子> 日本經濟學家野口悠紀雄(Yukio Noguchi)提出
He started with a cardboard box, and he put his documents into the box from the left-hand side. Each time he'd add a document, he'd move what was in there along and he'd add that document to the left-hand side of the box. And each time he accessed a document, he'd take it out, consult it and put it back in on the left-hand side. As a result, the documents would be ordered from left to right by how recently they had been used. And he found he could quickly find what he was looking for by starting at the left-hand side of the box and working his way to the right.
他從一個紙箱子開始，他把文件從左到右放進箱子中。每當放入一份文件時，就要移動箱中的文件，才能把新放入的文件放入箱子的左邊。每當他需要使用一份文件時，他會把該文件取出，使用完之後放回到最左邊。這樣的結果是，文件會從左到右排好，最左邊的是最近期使用過的。他發現這樣排之後，他只要從箱子的左邊開始一直向右找，就能快速 找到他想找的文件。
<日常例子>
as long as you, when you take a paper out, put it back on the top of the pile, then those papers are going to be ordered from top to bottom by how recently they were used, and you can probably quickly find what you're looking for by starting at the top of the pile.
只要你每次把一張紙拿出來，用完之後會放回那疊紙的最上方，那麼那疊紙從上到下就排好了順序， 最上面的是最近期使用的，你從那疊紙的最上面開始找，可能就能快速找到你要的。
<反思與待做功課>
- 運用影片所提3個方法，於日常生活中應用(例如整理衣櫃、書桌，做一個決定)，並檢視應用狀況。
- 不需要到全部準備好才做決定，運用37%法則驅策自己行動。
- 要以習慣決策(利用)，還是決定用新方法(探索)，取決於當下環境與狀態。沒有對錯，但可以鼓勵自己，時間許可的話多探索，並從探索中看看自己學到什麼。
- 遇到整理、取捨的議題時，留住最常使用的，把幾乎不會用的擱置或捨棄。
<講者書籍>
決斷的演算：預測、分析與好決定的11堂邏輯課：https://www.books.com.tw/products/0010761815
原文書：https://www.books.com.tw/products/F013941783
<本演講影片連結> 點我觀看
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